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After an outcome is known, the original uncertainty can become difficult to remember. A decision journal records what was understood at the time, before the story is rewritten by the result.
Keep the entry short and specific
Record the question, evidence considered, important assumptions and reasons a different conclusion might be correct. Write what would change your view. This is more useful than a paragraph saying that a decision felt compelling.
For a hypothetical research entry, separate an observed improvement in a company’s results from the expectation that the improvement will continue. They are different claims and should be reviewed differently.
Choose the review criteria in advance
Decide when the entry should be revisited and which observations matter. An unchanged price over a short period may say little about the original question. A material change in the evidence may require attention even when the price moved favourably.
Judge the reasoning without ignoring the result
At review, compare what actually happened with the original assumptions. Note missing evidence, a mistaken interpretation or a sound process that still encountered an unfavourable outcome. Avoid treating one success as proof that every part of the method was reliable.
The journal format above is our own suggested learning tool. It connects with the discipline of building investment systems, rather than offering a signal, a performance claim or a rule for buying and selling a particular security.
